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The Oracle Report

We watch the snowpack, the weather models, and the gauges, then forecast when each run comes in, weeks ahead. Four emails a year: April outlook · June lock-in · Stikine watch · season report card.

STIKINE — GRAND CANYON

odds, not a date
OPENstate: Open · odds curve inside
good under 550 cms at Telegraph Ck · now 423fall rain re-closes it in 4 of 10 years

MIDDLE KINGS

usually within ~5 days
WRAPPEDwas in Jun 21 → Jul 01 · 10-day window
good 1,800 → 900 cfs (Rogers Crossing) · now ≈338snow 64% of normal → 10 days instead of the usual 21

DEVILS POSTPILE

usually within ~5 days
WRAPPEDwas in Jun 21 → Jul 02 · 11-day window
good 250 → 100 cfs at the Postpile gauge · now 80snow 48% of normal · late-May false start, real window opened Jun 21

UPPER CHERRY

usually within ~3 days
WRAPPEDwas in Jun 11 → Jun 16 · 5-day window on the creek
good 200 → 145 cfs on the creek itself (CDEC UCC)snow 34% of normal · called Jun 11, creek came in Jun 11

FANTASY FALLS

usually within ~2 days
WRAPPEDprime opened ~May 15 · windows here run 3–9 days
good 800 → 600 cfs inflow to Salt Springssnow 16% of normal — thinnest in the Sierra this year
These are forecasts, not gauge readings. Check the live gauge before you commit to travel. Seen a run come in? Let us know — real dates improve next year's forecast.