FANTASY FALLS · good between 800 and 600 cfs of inflow to Salt Springs
Wrapped: opened ~May 15 — the blinker ran 3–9 days, like always
2026 prime opened ~May 15 on 16% snow — the thinnest pack in the Sierra.
Heads-up: the physical inflow gauge went dark in late 2025 (SCE stopped funding it), so this year
ran on the model + paddler confirms.
Our call
April 1 said
mid-May — 16% snow leaves nothing to melt slowly
May 15
called it open — the inflow gauge is dark, so this ran on the model alone
Paddlers did
May 15 — confirmed on the water, same day. Model 1,
dead gauge 0
Last full season on the gauge (2025)
See how steep that drop is? Jun 08 in, Jun 11 out — 3 days.
Blink and you're scouting it from the bank instead of running it. Gray dash = the median year
(1986–2024).
Why we called it
Snow was 16% of normal — the thinnest pack in the Sierra. Nothing melts
slowly off 16%; April said mid-May, and short.
The inflow gauge is dead (SCE stopped paying for it in late 2025), so this
call ran on the model and the Mokelumne-crest snow courses alone. Paddlers confirmed it on the
day.
Fourteen snow courses ring this basin — the densest coverage of any run we
call. When every one of them says the same thing (16%, gone by mid-May), the call writes
itself.
What goes into this call — and where to check it yourself
Salt Springs inflow, computed from reservoir storage + releases + the Tiger Creek
conduit · downstream reference: NF
Mokelumne below Salt Springs (USGS 11314500) (inflow gauge dark since late 2025 — confirms
from you keep it calibrated)
Every season 1986–2025 of computed inflow — the model's 40 training years;
the gauge went dark late 2025, so paddler confirms keep it honest
Track record — every call since 2016
year
we said
river did
miss
2016
Jun 17
Jun 16
1 early
2017
Jul 16
Jul 16
dead on
2018
May 30
May 31
1 late
2019
Jul 18
Jul 17
1 early
2020
Jun 04
Jun 06
2 late
2021*
Jun 07
May 10
28 early
2022
Jun 02
May 31
2 early
2023
Jul 25
Jul 24
1 early
2024
Jun 16
Jun 16
dead on
2025
Jun 04
Jun 05
1 late
2026
May 15
May 15†
dead on
Typical miss ≈ 1 day; worst 2 (2021* aside). Yes, really — windows this size
don't forgive anything looser, and the cliff-steep recession makes the crossings sharp enough to
call to the day. Graded on the 1,000 cfs inflow landmark, the sharpest point on the falling limb;
prime opens up to a week before it (that's the 800 → 600 band). † 2026 graded by paddler confirm —
the gauge was dark.
*2021: dust on the snow. April said Jun 7; the landmark passed
May 10 — four weeks early, same story as the whole range that spring. On the board, out of the
math.
Wrapped for 2026 — the first 2027 call lands ~April 1
Snow survey drops, we run the model, you get the date. Four emails a year.
These are forecasts, not gauge readings — the river gets the last word.
Check the live gauge before you burn vacation days. Seen a run come in? Tell us —
every confirmation makes next year's call better.