FANTASY FALLS · good between 800 and 600 cfs of inflow to Salt Springs

Wrapped: opened ~May 15 — windows ran 3–9 days, as usual

2026 prime opened ~May 15 on 16% snow — the thinnest pack in the Sierra. The physical inflow gauge went dark in late 2025 (SCE stopped funding it), so this year ran on the model plus paddler confirmations.

Our call

April 1 said: mid-May — 16% snow leaves nothing to melt slowly
May 15: called it open — the inflow gauge is dark, so this ran on the model alone
Paddlers did: May 15 — confirmed on the water, same day

Last full season on the gauge (2025)

Jun 08 in, Jun 11 out — 3 days. The recession is steep; the window is short. Gray dash = the median year (1986–2024).

Why we called it

Snow was 16% of normal — the thinnest pack in the Sierra. Nothing melts slowly off 16%; April said mid-May, and short.
The inflow gauge is dead (SCE stopped paying for it in late 2025), so this call ran on the model and the Mokelumne-crest snow courses alone. Paddlers confirmed it on the day.
Fourteen snow courses ring this basin — the densest coverage of any run we call. When every one of them says the same thing (16%, gone by mid-May), the call writes itself.

What goes into this call — and where to check it yourself

Snow: Highland Meadow, Blue Lakes, Ebbetts Pass, Caples Lake, Tragedy Creek + 9 more Mokelumne-crest courses (14 in all, CA DWR)
Flow: Salt Springs inflow, computed from reservoir storage + releases + the Tiger Creek conduit · downstream reference: NF Mokelumne below Salt Springs (USGS 11314500) (inflow gauge dark since late 2025 — confirms from you keep it calibrated)
Weather: Basin temp & precip through spring (ERA5 via Open-Meteo) · NWS pinpoint forecast for the Mokelumne crest
History: Every season 1986–2025 of computed inflow — the model's 40 training years. The gauge went dark late 2025, so paddler reports now confirm the come-in

Track record — every call since 2016

year	we said	river did	miss
2016	Jun 17	Jun 16	1 early
2017	Jul 16	Jul 16	exact
2018	May 30	May 31	1 late
2019	Jul 18	Jul 17	1 early
2020	Jun 04	Jun 06	2 late
2021*	Jun 07	May 10	28 early
2022	Jun 02	May 31	2 early
2023	Jul 25	Jul 24	1 early
2024	Jun 16	Jun 16	exact
2025	Jun 04	Jun 05	1 late
2026	May 15	May 15†	exact

Typical miss ≈ 1 day; worst 2 (2021* aside). The window is small and the recession steep, so the crossings are sharp enough to call to the day. Graded on the 1,000 cfs inflow landmark, the sharpest point on the falling limb; prime opens up to a week before it (that's the 800 → 600 band). † 2026 graded by paddler confirm — the gauge was dark.

*2021: dust on the snow. April said Jun 7; the landmark passed May 10 — four weeks early, same story as the whole range that spring. Shown on the chart, left out of the error stats.

These are forecasts, not gauge readings. Check the live gauge before you commit to travel. Seen a run come in? Let us know — real dates improve next year's forecast.